Battery cost forecasting: a review of methods and results with an
Recent studies show confidence in a more stable battery market growth and, across time-specific studies, authors expect continuously declining battery cost regardless of raw material
For behind the meter applications, the LCOS for a lithium ion battery is 43 USD/kWh and 41 USD/kWh for a lead-acid battery. A sensitivity analysis is conducted on the LCOS in order to identify key factors to cost development of battery storage.
Matteson and Williams (2015, b) evaluate LIB price competitiveness with lead–acid technology as a function of cumulative battery production.41 Technology-specific price trajectories are calculated by separating material and residual cost and applying a technological learning method.
Since advanced LIBs such as LMR-NMC|Si may approach both energy density and cost of batteries using lithium metal anodes, the authors conclude that the former present lower risk pathways for automotive manufacturers by avoiding lithium-metal-specific challenges related to lithium deposition and solid electrolyte interphase formation.
Recent technological learning studies expect higher battery-specific learning potentials and show confidence in a more stable battery market growth. Literature-based projections are shown to differ in both, consulted data sources and applied aggregation technique, but can provide forecasts with limited effort.
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